CEOs' perception of Milei's economy: "There's no danger of going under, but we won't be world champions either."

The classic survey among IDEA executives, where large companies predominate at 65% and SMEs the other 35%, marked a difference from previous years: the exchange rate and inflation are no longer a concern, but the tax burden is the main obstacle for 75% of the 257 opinions surveyed last June.

The other new development is a climate of moderate expectations. "They're very similar to last year's; no one sees the danger of going under, but no one believes we can become world champions," said Santiago Mignone, president of IDEA, which represents senior executives and some owners of leading firms.

According to the results, 58% of executives project the situation will be " moderately better," while 24% expect it to be "much better." Conversely, 10% expect it to worsen, and 8% estimate it will remain unchanged.

At IDEA, they combined the positive perception to conclude that 82% of business owners believe the country's economy will improve next year compared to the current scenario.

"The exchange rate is no longer a ghost," Mignone explained, emphasizing that those surveyed believe the dollar will remain within the floating range, and that inflation is expected to hover around 2%, but not break through 1%. In his view, there is a shared urgency regarding taxation. "We must eliminate distorting taxes, and very quickly. They severely damage the ability to compete. Businesses also include labor taxes within this category," he added.

Unlike other years, and despite the proximity of the elections, there was no inquiry into governability . "It doesn't appear to be a risk," they explained, indicating that no one agrees with the government's defeat in Congress last week, which "risks what we value most: the ordering of the accounts, the fiscal surplus, and the stability achieved with the drop in inflation ."

-What does it mean that expectations are moderate?

There are no high expectations, either up or down. The same thing happened last year, and what we found is that for the first time in 10 years, the curves between what was expected and what actually happened coincided.

Thus, when asked how they view 2026, they forecast moderate growth, with unchanged exports, moderate investment, and moderate job creation. And, above all, moderate profitability.

In the survey, business owners assigned less importance to the interest rate. Perhaps because of the date it was conducted, June, when there was no indication of what is happening these days.

But Mignone, head of the consulting firm PWC, one of the Big Four globally, asserts that the rate hike "is a temporary phenomenon that could lead to a plateau." At his side, economist Santiago Bulat said that the economy will grow at least 4% this year due to the statistical carryover effect given the strong V-shaped recovery at the end of 2024. He also highlighted the collapse in inflation.

IDEA is organizing its annual Colloquium in Mar del Plata next October, focusing on competitiveness . One aspect highlighted in the survey is the continued existence of regulations. The other is the significant heterogeneity between sectors, with a near-gap between the industry with the lowest installed capacity utilization and the services that are operating at full capacity.

Here are some other aspects of the survey: